Donald Trump ordered the killing of Iranian General Qassem Suleimani January 3rd with an American drone in order to restrain Iran's aggression. The last time the United States and Iran came this close to war was during the hostage crisis in 1979. Obviously, this is not a normal world and we live in an era where nobody’s shocked by anything, but the killing of Suleimani is incredibly stunning.
Millions of Iranians, many who probably don’t even support their government, poured into the streets to honor the death of Suleimani and you couldn’t scroll through social media the next couple days without seeing a few memes about world war three, posts about the threat of destruction and experts predicting pandemonium.
Iran reciprocated five days later by shooting missiles to two American bases that killed nobody, tranquilizing some of the tension. Some say that was a face-saving stunt by Iran. Flexing. Projecting. However, now we're all wondering what's going to happen in the next few months because this' definitely not the end.
During the past year, Iran and proxies have been taking shots at military bases in Iraq, oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, American drones, and ships in the Strait of Hormuz. America didn’t do much, making the Iranian regime way more cocky and much more belligerent, so America needed to show Iran it was willing to use its power.
Iran's response not killing anyone is a symbol of self-restraint and it illustrates the regime not being ready to get into a bigger conflict with America right now, however, it doesn't mean the Revolutionary Guards’ desire for revenge has been gratified. The execution of vengeance may come in the future in the form of cyber-attacks, proxy suicide-bombings, assassinations and many more ways.
Most likely, as time goes on, Iran will continue to test America’s willingness to fire back. In this asymmetric age, the weak disappear when they feel the pressure of force, but they have a tolerance for pain and suffering and they usually come back. Although in this situation, America has an asymmetric edge with air power.
Trump has been trying to shut down Iran’s exports ever since pulling out of the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and six other Western powers. The British Foreign Office thinks the government of Iran has a plan to sell crude oil to Bashar al-Assad’s savage regime in order to disrupt security in the Middle East.
Last summer, Iran’s Adrian Darya 1 tanker, formerly Grace 1, got caught with 2.1 million barrels of oil off the coast of Tartus, Syria, allegedly delivering it to the Assad regime and violating many assurances not to sell Syria oil. Assad being a client might have something to do with Iran never complaining about Assad spraying his own people with nerve gas. Suleimani helped Assad stay in power when his regime was about to collapse and he was instrumental in getting Russia involved in the Syrian conflict.
It’s probably too soon to talk about the talent replacing General Suleimani, but if his reputation is commensurate with his strategic brilliance, then his absence will be noticed, especially since Iran is running low on money. The Iranian people, for the most part, want the government to spend less money on guns and invest more into education and medicine. Last November, protests broke out across the country because of bad governance and a weak economy. The Iranian government killed hundreds of people and locked up thousands.
More importantly, the biggest threat now is Iran’s ability to get a bomb. Iran said it will enrich uranium without following any restrictions January 5th. If Iran succeeds, America will have no choice but to reexamine how to use military force against Iran.
Trump said he could negotiate a better deal, but it might be a while before Iran starts talking to us again. So, here we are, with intense sanctions, the threat of extraordinary destruction and little room for negotiation in order to force Iran into submission.
With the American government currently somewhat unpredictable, the danger of sliding into war is probably as easy as sliding into DMs. Sanctions don’t remain potent forever and America may have to respond with a military campaign if Iran keeps making more moves toward the bomb. This situation is now something Trump and his successors must anticipate and be ready to handle.
Everyone knows issues in the Middle East can eat up America’s money and attention. Barrack Obama and Donald Trump have both tried to get America out of the Middle East by using different techniques, however, a big part of the solution right now revolves around America’s presence in the region to maintain deterrence and keep an eye on Iran, especially with the prospects for diplomacy diminishing. The last thing we want is an escalation of hostilities or war, but sometimes you can’t help but see visions of hell before you see the path to peace.